Friday, November 2, 2012


Friday, November 2, 2012

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Let Me Be Clear - Fire Obama
By David K. Miller
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When it comes to investing, you're either right and you profit, or you're wrong and you lose money.
The whole point of investing is to have your money make more, so it really stings when a decision instead takes away what you already had.
After all, you would have more personal benefit if you had just spent that money on luxuries than lost it to some faceless opponent in the markets.
So let's get some clarity from the fog of confusion that swirls around us on a daily basis.
Last June the stock market was tanking and many were bearish. With a bad economy, it was all too easy to imagine a major bear market would follow.
Instead, I'm on record from back in 2011 as predicting a bull market through the Presidential election, and that is exactly what happened.

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History shows there is a greater than 60% chance of a bull market in the 18 months prior to the election, so I'm not psychic. I just did my homework and went with the odds.
What happens in the next 18 months is much less easy to predict because it depends a lot on what happens next Tuesday and who is elected.
The difference could not be more stark.
Make no mistake, the stock market cannot indefinitely rise while the economy is flat lined.
The Fed can't indefinitely print money and get away with it, so the forces propping up the market are not going to last.
While it is likely that no matter who wins the Presidency it will be very difficult to navigate the Sequestration and mandatory $500 billion defense cuts, the debt ceiling and expiration of the Bush Tax Rates (that's right, I said RATES, not CUTS because they've been the rates for 10 years).
But one candidate has proven he cannot make things better and one has a track record of turning things around successfully.
As Clint Eastwood said recently, when an employee doesn't do the job, you fire them - and Obama is America's top employee.
While Obama deceptively claims to have created 5 million jobs, that's only 'true' if you don't count the greater number of jobs LOST.
The NET jobs record is negative over his term. That deception by itself in the '5 million' jobs claim is grounds for firing in my view because it obscures the true failure and employees shouldn't lie.
Unemployment is higher than when Obama took office. The labor force participation rate is at 31 year lows with just 63.8% of Americans employed as of today's report and it was 65.7% 4 years ago.
That is a 31 year LOW. That's horrible.
Fact is, U6, which measures unemployment and underemployment, is at 14.6% now, it was 14.6% 4 years ago, but it was also better 6 months ago, so objectively we're moving in the wrong direction.
In the real world, that kind of performance gets you fired when those results are after 6 TRLLION in new debt and over $800 billion was blown on a boondoggle stimulus that was promised to bring unemployment down to 5.2% right now and in reality its 7.9%.
The President's whole argument comes down to "I need more time to finish what I started".
Um. No. There is zero evidence that America's economy would survive allowing this man to 'finish' what he's started.
Let's examine just one of a myriad of failed initiatives to measure what to expect from 4 more years of Obama.
Obama literally blew $90 billion on green energy companies like Solyndra and 86% of them have failed and some have involved fraud and campaign contributors.
I literally don't have room in this article to list all the other failures - some of which are actually worse.
Also concerning is that there has been a baffling trend of official government figures on the economy to be revised months later to reflect worse statistics than 'previously reported', so don't bet your life on that 7.9% unemployment figure anyway.
Things are actually worse than reported is a better assumption.
In my personal view, as the details of what really got four Americans killed in Benghazi are revealed the utter incompetence and craven cover up alone justify the resignation of President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, let alone the myriad of countless other scandals.
But this isn't about my personal opinion.
This article is about investing results and until the American people speak next Tuesday and cast their votes, I can't tell you whether I expect the US economy to go off a fiscal cliff or to finally turn around.
With that said, if you want four more years of incompetence and failure, then vote for Obama. If you want a guy who at least has a private and public sector record of success, give Romney a shot at the job. That's up to you.
That isn't partisan. That's just the facts as they stand.
I'm an independent and have voted for both parties for President, but the last Democrat I voted for was Bill Clinton in 1992.
He earned re-election, Obama has absolutely not by any measure I can imagine.
When an employee does a bad job, they deserve to be fired. Period.
And frankly, if you looked at Obama's resume before he was hired, there really shouldn't be any surprise at his results.
Romney, in contrast, has much to offer. Too much to list here.
Either way, the next 12 months could be very bumpy.
Again, in investing you're either right or wrong. What should you do with your investments in this uncertain period?
Your money not only should be safe, it should be working for you and my recommendation is that you concentrate on investments that have a high probability of yielding solid return no matter what happens on election night.
That's why you should stay tuned for a high yield dividend stock report that I'll tell you about tomorrow because that is the best way I know for you to achieve 10% plus returns in the next 12 months.
The best strategy when there is no clear answer is to pick investments that win under a broad range of outcomes.
With the Election bullish bias ending, note that there is a strong correlation between bear markets and years after Presidential elections. Word to the wise.
While I can understand some saying they don’t like their choices in this election, it is clear that one can’t say that the choice doesn't matter.
Let me be clear, we can’t afford four more years of President Obama.
Good Investing,
David K. Miller
Managing Editor, AbsoluteWealth.com

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